Amit Bhattacharya| TNN | Updated: May 30, 2017, 09.28 AM IST


  • The southwest monsoon is “most likely” to hit the Kerala coast and northeast India today.
  • The earlier-than-usual onset of monsoon in northeast is being aided by cyclone Mora, now moving north from the Bay of Bengal.
  • The rains are likely to advance into most of Kerala and parts of TN in 24 hrs.
NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon is “most likely” to hit the Kerala coast and northeast India simultaneously on Tuesday, the onset date forecast by the India Meteorological Department earlier in the month.

Monsoon’s early push into the northeast, where the rain system normally arrives a few days after its onset over Kerala, is being aided by cyclone Mora, currently moving north from the Bay of Bengal.

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Mora is set to intensify into a severe cyclone and make landfall near Chittagong in eastern Bangladesh around forenoon tomorrow, and travel north-northeastwards. A heavy rain alert has been issued for many parts of the northeast in the wake of the storm for Tuesday and Wednesday. A warning has also been sounded for fishermen not to venture into the sea off West Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

“Monsoon is most likely to arrive over Kerala and most parts of the northeastern states tomorrow,” said M Mohapatra, head of IMD‘s National Weather Forecasting Centre. Officials said it’s likely to advance into most of Kerala and some parts of Tamil Nadu in the next 24 hours.

The normal date for monsoon’s onset over the Indian mainland, usually the Kerala coast, is June 1. This year, IMD had forecast a May 30 onset, which is within the normal range of monsoon’s arrival.

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There are also indications of monsoon progressing well on the western coast and the southern peninsula, including some interior parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra during the first week of June.

Top Comment

For India, there is only one God, monsoon. If it is pleased we are happy. If displeased we are not having even drinking water in summer and no farming in rainy season.Brahmdeo Singh

“We are expecting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity over the Indian Ocean which will aid the advance of the monsoon,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead monsoon forecaster. MJO is a weather disturbance in the equatorial Indian Ocean that travels like a pulse from west to east. Depending on its position at that time, MJOs can depress the monsoon or activate it for a few days.

It’s rather rare for monsoon to arrive over Kerala and the northeast simultaneously, but not unheard of, said officials. “There have even been years when monsoon has hit northeast India before arriving over Kerala,” said Pai.

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